JoanBeach4

The Finnish People Cheer Us Up.

2008-10-22T16:16:00.002-04:00

Just finished a book on Madagascar, which is wildly alien in terrain, flora and fauna. I think something like the Finnish spirit.

All three of these videos, remember, come out of the same country.

Finnish Disco lesson:

Screaming Men Chorus; their version of the Star Spangled Banner:

And my beloved Leningrad Cowboys:

Grandpa Dunham's Grandkid.

2008-10-22T16:08:00.004-04:00

Obama's last "parent," his beautiful grandmother, is in very bad shape. We wish him strength. It's always hard, but especially so when it's your last one.

So now we know who he takes after. The resemblance is just startling. So adorable. (Note ears as large inherited factor).

And another:

Big Apple Circus.

2008-10-22T15:58:00.003-04:00

Still either in pain or on painkillers, so am only going to do happy wappy posts.

First. Couldn't allow this one by, as I loved working there (when it was a rag-tag green tent in Battery Park City), and Paul is an old flame/friend, so always wish him the best.

Blogcation.

2008-10-18T15:42:00.000-04:00

Haven't been, and may not, blog for a while. Little under the weather.

Nothing's happening anyway, right?

Why Rachel Maddow Can Change Television.

2008-10-14T08:09:00.002-04:00

I watched this last night, not quite believing my ears. I've always felt Frum was given more intellectual credence than he's worth, but last night, he proved himself to be completely unequal to New School Journalism. He tried to start an old-school shouting match of personal attack with Maddow. She didn't bite. He ended up floundered and flustered, and self-flagellating.

And she kept right on point, despite being blindsided.

From Tristero at digby:

Frum deliberately, and maliciously, leveled a personal attack on his host. Frum knew exactly what he was doing. His purpose clearly was to provoke a shouting match, precisely the kind of discussion he claims to deplore. (Note: See Digby's post directly below for more about the dishonesty of Frum's discourse.)

Maddow responded brilliantly with two separate tactics. First, despite the fact that she was clearly furious at Frum for implying that the tone of her show was in any way comparable to the eliminationist ravings of the recent McCain rallies, she refused to permit Frum to make her lose her temper. Her voice simply got slightly deeper, her tone more sober and serious.

Secondly, she refused to permit Frum to change the subject. He tried everything, even, at one point, attempting to escape to Afghanistan! Maddow brought him back to the subject: he had personally accused her of sinking to the level of a knuckle-dragger who thinks the Democratic presidential candidate is a terrorist. But rather than focusing on the personal aspect of that attack - except to acknowledge it - Maddow zeroed in on the absurdity of the comparison.

The effect was electrifying. A flustered Frum flipped through all his defenses until he finally found the only way out that Maddow's questioning, and her mien, permitted. In an extraordinarily delicious sequence, Maddow let him ramble on - and on - about how awful the Republican party is, surely far more than he ever expected to. He dug his own hole deeper and deeper.

In short, Maddow proactively helped Frum hoist himself with his own petard.

There is much more to be gleaned from this clip. It was an exceedingly complex interaction the likes of which rarely occur in the typical interview. You may see things quite differently than I - for example, you might conclude that Maddow was more amused at Frum's gambit than furious. And the gender politics on display would take a doctoral thesis to unravel. But I think one meta-message is clear:

Despite Frum's concerted efforts to have precisely the kind of vacuous, irrationally emotional conversation he claimed to deplore, Maddow compelled him to participate in a substantive exchange on the issue of false equivalency in political discourse.

Please, can we have more like this:

What Can You Say. Sunday Funnies.

2008-10-12T09:47:00.000-04:00

From the NYTimes's Stolberg:

WASHINGTON — George W. Bush began his presidency with the worst terrorist attack on American soil and he is ending it with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In between, he confronted a hurricane that nearly wiped New Orleans off the map as his administration showed ineptitude in its response.

Now, as he spends his last months in office trying to avert a global economic collapse, Mr. Bush has been telling people privately that it’s a good thing he’s in charge.

“He said that if it was going to happen at all, he was glad it was happening under his presidency, because he had a good group of people in D.C. working for him,” Dru Van Steenberg, one of several small-business owners who met with Mr. Bush in San Antonio earlier this week. The president expressed the same sentiment, others said, during a similar private session in Chantilly, Va., the next day.

Another Right-Wing Myth: Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

2008-10-12T07:16:00.003-04:00

McClatchy fact-checks the newest right-wing viral emails, Fox News, etc., code-racist meme that Clinton, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were the primary causes for the financial meltdown:

Federal Reserve Board data show that:

_ More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.

_ Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.

_ Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics.

The "turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007," the President's Working Group on Financial Markets reported Friday.

Republicans need a scapegoat for their own mess. They have devolved into a racist, nationalist party. And their base, the villagers with pitchforks, will blindly believe them.

In the real world, as someone pointed out, lending money to a rich white man would seem to be riskier than lending to a poor man of color.

Happy Dogs.

2008-10-11T10:56:00.001-04:00

Happy dogs. They speak for us.

UPDATE: To clarify, this is a soldier just returned from Afghanistan. He allows it's a reinactment, but I bet it's pretty close to the original.

Carnac The Magnificent.

2008-10-11T10:54:00.001-04:00

Wow, I guess he is a prophet. Except they are so predictable, in the end.

Oh Hai.

2008-10-11T10:26:00.002-04:00

Have been absent from here for a few days, partially because I just want everything to be over and winter to set in and I want to turn off the teevee and play comforting video games involving small raccoons and their hippo buddies.

There was just too much hate in the air this week. I am sick of this country's dialogue being controlled by toothless stupid people who cling (bitterly) to the idea that a candidate is a strange arab terrorist muslim without a birth certificate who must be bombed. My disagreement with McCain/Palin this week turned to loathing. I loathe them as I loathe any terrorist, any lynch mob inciter, any power-hungry freak who puts another's life in danger by fomenting hatred. I loathe them as I loathe cowardice, bullying, hiding behind the coattails of bullies. I loathe them for believing their unpreparedness and stupidity actually unites them with the majority of this American population, and for their assumption that they are somehow entitled to run this country and its diverse population, most of whom they reject as unpatriotic. I loathe them for appealing to the worst in people.

Apparently, a majority of this country feels the same way as I do. He's tanking. It will now give me satisfaction that his reputation is ruined, that no amount of groveling and apologizing will win it back. And I am happy that his little Sancho Panza sidekick will crawl back to Alaska to face, one would hope, the impeachment she so roundly deserves.

I hope this ragged, stupid base of the Republican Party is also ruined, is also sent back to whatever cave or cesspool it crawled out of. I hope that in some future day, we will once again have worthy adversaries, true conservatives, who provide a balance in our system, who bring good opposing ideas into the dialogue, ones that we can really listen to instead of loathe. We need them desperately. And right now, their voices are drowned out by the villagers with pitchforks.

It is up to Republicans themselves to restore rationality and morality to their own party. There are good voices out there. But they shame themselves when they blame circumstances, or the other side, for their own patent failures.

Best wishes for a speedy recovery.

The Base.

2008-10-09T07:00:00.002-04:00

Found this on Andrew Sullivan, but I know it so well, anyway.

These people live around here, or their cousins do. While not the majority, they comprise enough of the population to be significant. This is the Pennsylvania T, the Appalachia pocket, where the culture of these people is closer to Alabama and Kentucky than to neighbors New Jersey and New York.

This, now, is the Republican base. Either too stupid or too lazy to be literate; resenting anyone who is. Insular and self-absorbed, angry and resentful of The Other, uninterested in the notion of Country other than some vague yellow-ribboned patriotism.

If you are still a Republican, you may have a few more teeth, you may drink indoors rather than on your front lawn, you may be a little less coarse and maybe a bit more quiet.

But you are these people. If you love the mediocrity and anti-intellectualism and the piss-off liberals side of Sara Palin, you are these people. This is what your party has become, and this is what the world sees when it hears the word "Republican."

Congratulations, and best wishes for a speedy recovery.

Michelle Obama's "Whitey" Video.

2008-10-06T17:26:00.001-04:00

God. We just don't need this.

Something To Chew On.

2008-10-06T10:28:00.001-04:00

From Steve Benen, a laundry list to explore:

THE COMPANY THAT HE KEEPS.... Here's John McCain's latest line of attack: "Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever befriended an unrepentant terrorist, or had a convicted felon help them buy their house." Substantively, this is ridiculous, of course, but everyone, everywhere, knew this was coming.

We can, however, take this a step further.

Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever befriended a convicted felon who advised his supporters on how best to shoot federal officials in the head. John McCain has.

Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever used the money of a convicted criminal to help them buy their house. John McCain has.

Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever befriended a radical televangelist who has lashed out at the Roman Catholic Church, calling it, among other things, "the great whore" and "a false cult system." John McCain has.

Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever sought economic advice from a far-right former lawmaker who "has diminished American solvency and power beyond the wildest dreams of anti-American terrorists." John McCain has.

Americans need to ask themselves if they've ever befriended a radical televangelist who blamed the attacks of Sept. 11 on Americans. John McCain has.

My point isn't that the presidential campaign should be based on who the candidates have met; my point is that we could probably play this foolish game all day long. And on balance, McCain's ties to a pretty motley crew are far more direct and meaningful than Obama's. So maybe we can just skip it and debate substance for the next month?

Rezko? Keating. Ayers? Liddy. Wright? Hagee. Hell, we've barely started to talk about some of the high-priced lobbyists on McCain's campaign staff and their controversial client lists. This is what McCain and his cronies what to spend the last 29 days of the campaign debating, because to them, anything beats talking about the economy. How very sad.

Vacay.

2008-10-06T10:21:00.002-04:00

Hosting friends, ergo light or nonexistent blogging.

Keep playing the French video. Back soon.

The Kooky French Will Cheer You Up.

2008-10-04T18:08:00.002-04:00

I guess my fave video of all time. Twenty years old, from Les Rita Mitsouko. The guy died last year, France cried. Vive Le Cirque! Vive Les Rita Mitsouko! Vive Marcia Baile!

They're bringing me Gitanes tonight. A demain.

Get Ready To Be Sick.

2008-10-04T12:19:00.001-04:00

Those who agree with the viral emails and the birth-certificate conspiracy theories may have an exciting month ahead; those who think this tripe is simply a hysterical attempt to derail the real issues of this most important election may feel like throwing up a number of times this October.

It was reported yesterday that the McCain campaign has devoted nearly 100 percent of its ad money to negative ads for October. So, instead of hearing about the economy, we'll be subjected to dark, menacing pictures of Obama and Ayers; Obama and Rezko; Obama is a Muslim; Obama kills babies and eats them.

From the Washington Post:

"Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain's team has decided that its emphasis on the senator's biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan's campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

"We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity."

McCain hired Steve Schmidt, a protege of Karl Rove, to run his campaign--this, after Rove despicably savaged McCain in South Carolina in 2000. Now, McCain's going to run the exact same campaign against Obama in the next month.

TPM predicts that this will be the single most despicable campaign month American politics has ever seen.

Real classy.

Hockeymombonics.

2008-10-04T10:59:00.002-04:00

Am I the only one in the nation completely offended by Sara Palin's folksiness?

There are two languages in American culture: the public and the private. The public is formal, grammatical, relatively accentless, neutral. In England, they call it "BBC English," because it speaks to everyone, not a specific cultural or regional group.

Private, or idiomatic, language is used within a smaller group--a family, a region--to more closely bond or identify with that group. Grammatical rules are relaxed or changed, and certain words or phrases indigenous to that group evolve. If someone says "yu'uns," chances are pretty good he's from the Pittsburgh area; whether you use "pop" or "soda" to describe a sweet carbonated beverage is a signal of your region. "Redd up" to mean "clean up" is a Scots-Irish phrase. And families who use "ain't" or "I seen" around the kitchen table clean up their language at work, or run the risk of looking unschooled. Neither one is better than the other; they simply have different functions in our society. On is exclusive, the other inclusive.

The much-maligned "ebonics" was an attempt to breach the barrier between public and private, or idiomatic, language. It failed because private language, while inclusive within the group, is by nature exclusive of the rest of the population.

So we come to Sara Palin. While on stage, in the most sober setting imaginable--a bid for the nation's second-highest office--she used private, kitchen-table language. "Doggonit!" "Geez!" "Well, Gosh!"

Now, a little of that, slipping through, is perceived as warm and barrier-breaking. As a schtick, however, when we're discussing matters of import, it comes off as stupid. Plain stupid.

What if Obama addressed McCain as "homey"? What if Obama had said "I axed the Prime Minister..."? He knows better. He knows that, even if he uses these phrases around the kitchen table (which I doubt seriously he does), they have no place in a common discourse, because they assign him to a group, rather than a commonality.

Why are we not offended when Sara Palin uses kitchen-table language? Why are we not offended when she lapses into idioms? Why are we not offended that she lowers the level of common discourse about serious issues with cuteness and uncomfortable familiarity?

Had she been a telemarketer, had she been in an important client meeting, she would have been admonished by her boss, and sent out for remedial language cleanup. Why is it suddenly okay when she's applying for the presidency of the United States?

Do we have no dignity as a nation?

Meltdown.

2008-10-04T10:29:00.002-04:00

From Hilzoy. She did all the work cobbling together the two sources, Roubini and Felix Salmon. Roubini I read, but this Iceland thing is totally scary, especially the email at the end.

Roubini:

"It is now clear that the US financial system -- and now even the system of financing of the corporate sector -- is now in cardiac arrest and at a risk of a systemic financial meltdown."
...
What this means:
- a silent run on the huge mass of uninsured deposits of the banking system and even a run on some insured deposits are small depositors are scared;

- a run on most of the shadow banking system: over 300 non bank mortgage lenders are now bust; the SIVs and conduits are now all bust; the five major brokers dealers are now bust (Bear and Lehman) or still under severe stress even after they have been converted into banks (Merrill, Morgan, Goldman); a run on money market funds; a serious run on hedge funds; a looming refinancing crisis for private equity firms and LBOs);

- a run on the short term liabilities of the corporate sector as the commercial paper market has totally frozen (and experiencing a roll-off) while access to medium terms and long term financings for corporations is frozen at a time when hundreds of billions of dollars of maturing debts need to be rolled over;

- a total seizure of the interbank and money markets.

This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely."

Roubini has been on track in his predictions for about five years now, about the housing market, etc. Let's hope he's wrong this time.

But then, again from Hilzoy, let's take a gander at Iceland, where the same bad paper scenario played out. The government announced the temporary takeover of the national bank. But no one was willing to issue debt to the government.

She quotes Felix Salmon:

"The cost of protecting government debt from default soared to a record yesterday, according to traders of credit-default swaps. Contracts on Iceland's debt jumped to 17.5 percent upfront and 5 percent a year to protect 10 million euros ($13.8 million) of bonds, CMA Datavision prices show."

Finally, Felix Salmon prints an email he received from a reader in Iceland:

"They are fighting powers that they are powerless to fight. It's like tackling a storm raging in the sea with a teaspoon. The main supermarket can't get imported goods because they have no currency. The shops are half empty. One of the store managers has advised people to start hoarding. We're running out of oil. And winter came last night - about a month early."

Krugman postulates that the bailout may have come too little, too late, and expects another bailout before January.

We're not even in the woods yet, much less out of them.

Dis How Stupid U Look.

2008-10-04T10:21:00.003-04:00

From Krugman. They never check anything, and they assume no one else will, either.

Unbelievable. Sarah Palin finished her closing remarks by quoting Ronald Reagan:
It was Ronald Reagan who said that freedom is always just one generation away from extinction. We don’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream; we have to fight for it and protect it, and then hand it to them so that they shall do the same, or we’re going to find ourselves spending our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children about a time in America, back in the day, when men and women were free.
When did he say this? It was on a recording he made for Operation Coffeecup — a campaign organized by the American Medical Association to block the passage of Medicare. Doctors’ wives were supposed to organize coffee klatches for patients, where they would play the Reagan recording, which declared that Medicare would lead us to totalitarianism. [Emphasis added.]

Add to this her quote about small towns at the Convention: later pointed out to be a quote from Westbrook Pegler, famous anti-Semite and fascist sympathizer; and a quote she attributed to Thomas Jefferson, which no Jefferson scholar can find anywhere.

UPDATE: From Matt Yglesias:

It’s worth being reminded now and again that conservatives really believed this stuff. That Medicare would lead to the eradication of freedom. That the Civil Rights Act was a horrible abridgment of American liberty. That withdrawal from Vietnam would lead to Soviet global domination. That Bill Clinton’s 1993 budget would destroy the economy. And that the people responsible for those — Reagan, Goldwater, Gingrich, etc. — ideas are heroes to be admired.

Chart. Ha.

2008-10-03T12:17:00.003-04:00

From Adennak, via Andrew Sullivan.

Eve Harrington.

2008-10-03T09:19:00.004-04:00

After the first five minutes, I couldn't watch Biden not looking at the audience, and Sara's full frontal bangs and blinks, so just listened, glancing every once in a while.

Then, as a visual, Biden started looking at the camera, and Palin started looking at her notes. It went downhill for her from there. Biden built, and Palin crashed and burned.

I came away with the sense, once again, that she had crammed for this, that she knew a few pat answers to questions on, say, taxes--and brattily told Ifill she wouldn't answer questions that she didn't like. But her tactics, and her fluffy grasp of real issues and names (McClellan?), were laid transparent by Biden's firm hold on actual facts.

Because what she had been given were crib notes full of the usual disproven lies. It was like trying to cheat on a test with answers given to you by a D student.

But the absolute scariest, most Eve Harrington moment of the debate came toward the end, when she answered the question about how each candidate viewed the vice president's role. Her answer:

Well, our founding fathers were very wise there in allowing through the Constitution much flexibility there in the office of the vice president. And we will do what is best for the American people in tapping into that position and ushering in an agenda that is supportive and cooperative with the president’s agenda in that position. Yeah, so I do agree with him that we have a lot of flexibility in there, and we’ll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation.

Of course, Biden knocked that one out of the park with his Cheney=dangerous response. But her answer made my blood run cold.

I've been comparing her to Eve Harrington all along, in terms of her focused, relentless ambition. Her response not only confirmed that, but also, extended it.

John McCain is in very poor health. Many MD's saw the video of his grimaces and his confusion I posted the other day, and opined that he should see a doctor immediately. A brain tumor, a TIA, or a full-blown stroke are not out of the question.

Sara Palin has, I'm sure, noticed that, too. The odds of her having to run the country in a very short time have not slipped past her laser focus on grabbing power.

To Sara Palin, McCain's dangerously bad health is a feature, not a bug.

She is unaware of her own failings, her own inability to be president. She wants that brass ring, now, more than ever.

Scary.

UPDATE: For those of you who are young, or who are not movie buffs, here's my Eve Harrington reference explained: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_about_eve

Debate.

2008-10-02T15:55:00.002-04:00

I'm going along with those who predict there's a good chance this debate won't change anything at all. Palin's got a shot at not crashing and burning. As anonymous liberal points out:

What made the Couric interviews so devastating was Couric's tendency (which is actually rare among reporters) to ask follow up questions when she got a non-responsive answer. When Palin would filibuster, Couric would repeat the question or press her for specifics. That's what elicited her most embarrassing responses.

But the format of the debate won't allow for those kind of follow up questions. Palin can be as non-responsive as she pleases. Moreover, on at least half the questions, Biden will have to answer first, which will give Palin time to think about her answer and allow her to build off whatever Biden says. And finally, the questions aren't likely to be out of left field. There's a lot of ground to cover and not much time to do it, so it's very likely that all of the questions she'll be asked will have been anticipated by her coaches and she'll have set answers ready.

Look for Palin giving no policy specifics, steering uncomfortable moments of ignorance into adorable personal anecdotes, mugging a lot, and using a whole bunch of passive-aggressive humor. Rrrreow.

And look for no one to pick up on the fact that at the end, she'll have given us no specific answers at all.

Keep your fingers crossed for Biden.

Union Solidarity.

2008-10-02T15:51:00.001-04:00

Very moving video of Richard Trumka of the AFL-CIO. This is why an Obama win could be transforming for all Americans.

Scary.

2008-10-01T15:57:00.002-04:00

This happened earlier today, and is pretty disturbing, considering the gradual distortion of one side of McCain's face, and the eye on that side, over the past few months. Within the space of a few minutes, he has what seem to be two severe facial spasms; then he gets lost on stage.

I've seen opinions from more than one dermatologist saying that he has a one in four chance of dying in office (25%) over an eight-year period. They're only looking at his history of severe-stage melanoma, not his five years in captivity.

Release all his med records now.

Oney-May.

2008-09-30T18:28:00.002-04:00

As true today as in 1933.

And bless Ginger Rogers. Nite.

Ha.

2008-09-30T15:42:00.001-04:00

Via Andrew Sullivan:

A Canadian commenter at Jonathan Martin's blog is puzzled:

I don't understand why Palin isn't doing more interviews in America. In her hourlong appearance on Canadian TV, she engaged in a trenchant critique of Samuel Huntington's clash-of-civilizations theory, identifying the western Balkans and central Asia as but two significant outliers. She acknowledged Syrian secret service involvement in past unrest in Lebanon, but said to craft a Syria-focused US policy vis-a-vis Lebanon for that reason alone would be "reductionist." I didn't understand the second half-hour very well, when she was answering the questions in French. But I think she gently corrected the interviewer's imprecise use of the word "geostrategic."

Still Bumpy.

2008-09-30T13:53:00.002-04:00

Per Krugman, Mark Thoma predicts the economy is due for another hit soon:

Thoma quotes from Fortune Magazine:

“When John Dykstra got his September credit card bill from Advanta, a small-business card issuer, he was shocked: Dykstra says he has a good credit score and has never missed a payment, but his interest rate had jumped from 7.99% to 26%.

He was even more shocked by the explanation: A brochure in the mail told him he needed to be aware of the 'continually changing business environment.'

He's not alone. Card issuers from Bank of America to Capital One are using the economic crisis as a reason to raise rates. According to Consumer Action's 2008 survey of card companies, Bank of America, Citi, and Capital One have recently said that "market conditions" could cause them to increase APR's.”
Recently, rising prices have forced consumers to draw on their credit cards (revolving lines of credit) more and more to finance everyday purchases like gasoline and food, and increasing credit card APR’s will force consumers to cut back on their credit card borrowing; this will almost certainly curtail consumption. Further, evidence suggests that commercial and industrial lending is set to fall as lines of credit dry up, forcing businesses to cut back on investment. Get ready for a rocky fourth quarter.

Privatization.

2008-09-30T11:35:00.002-04:00

Privatizing Social Security? We have a model of what McCain's grand plan is, over the last few days.

As Atrios and many others have pointed out, the model is 401k's, IRAs. They've been in effect for quite a while. Retirement plans invested in the market.

Yesterday, those accounts lost 7% of their value. That means, if you had $100,000 in your 401k Thursday, today you have $92,000.

Why Democracy Failed.

2008-09-30T08:35:00.004-04:00

A friend in Toronto called last night. Of course, we began with the disastrous news of the day; Republican rejection of their own leaders, leading to a 770 point drop in the Dow. Her comment was, "Well, democracy seems to have failed, hasn't it?"

Republicans were listening to angry constituents who get their information from Rush Limbaugh and Lou Dobbs--those who feed on outrage, not information. They had more of a say than the average citizen, even though they were less informed. Once again, gut thinking rather than brain thinking. Is this what we have become?

David Brooks, this morning:

And let us recognize above all the 228 who voted no — the authors of this revolt of the nihilists. They showed the world how much they detest their own leaders and the collected expertise of the Treasury and Fed. They did the momentarily popular thing, and if the country slides into a deep recession, they will have the time and leisure to watch public opinion shift against them.

House Republicans led the way and will get most of the blame. It has been interesting to watch them on their single-minded mission to destroy the Republican Party. Not long ago, they led an anti-immigration crusade that drove away Hispanic support. Then, too, they listened to the loudest and angriest voices in their party, oblivious to the complicated anxieties that lurk in most American minds.

Now they have once again confused talk radio with reality. If this economy slides, they will go down in history as the Smoot-Hawleys of the 21st century. With this vote, they’ve taken responsibility for this economy, and they will be held accountable. The short-term blows will fall on John McCain, the long-term stress on the existence of the G.O.P. as we know it.

I’ve spoken with several House Republicans over the past few days and most admirably believe in free-market principles. What’s sad is that they still think it’s 1984. They still think the biggest threat comes from socialism and Walter Mondale liberalism. They seem not to have noticed how global capital flows have transformed our political economy.

I think Pelosi was out of line with that little speech. It injected partisanship. However, the fundamentalist Republicans were not listening to that speech so much as they were listening to the "loud, angry" voices in their own party. There will never be unity from these people, because their entire premise is based on not taking responsibility, placing blame everywhere except on themselves, and projecting their anger onto the other. It's a bunker mentality. It's more of a neurosis than an ideology. And the more serious the problem, the crazier they get.

The question becomes: Who will steer this country: The sane ones, or the ones having a nervous breakdown?

Because It's Sunday, And I Miss Them.

2008-09-28T18:05:00.001-04:00

And what are they doing now? A forgotten gem from the New Yorker, during the Republican National Convention, about the New York Delegation:

It was close to midnight. The Xcel Center began to empty, and the men went out into the city of St. Paul and looked for a cab. They were trying to get to a party at a former speakeasy, where gangsters had gone to war against one another. As the delegates stepped into the street, one of them, from Queens, told a reporter, “O.K., now we’re off the record.” He nodded toward Ribustello, as a warning. “Do you know who he is? A Soprano. Do you know what that means?”

How Can He Keep Her?

2008-09-28T16:31:00.002-04:00

Now, Fareed Zakaria.

In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true.

As Kevin Drum notes, Zakaria, while a very good commentator, serves as a weathervane; he usually doesn't state something until just before it's common wisdom.

Among prominent conservatives, George Will, David Frum, Rod Dreher, Kathleen Parker, Ross Douthat, David Brooks, Charles Krauthammer have seen Palin as a disaster.

The question becomes, can McCain afford to keep her?

But, after all, picking Palin was McCain's first presidential decision. That is what he, McCain, should be judged on. He picked her.

That fact, and his erratic, drunk-stumbling behavior since then has confirmed any doubts we should have about what a McCain presidency would look like: a rash, unformed decision, followed by attempted cover-up and spin, then finally apologies. Then another rash, unformed decision.

Even if she goes home to shotgun-wed her knocked up daughter, John McCain should be made to own her. She's the symbol of his campaign.

Oh. My. God. A Shotgun Wedding.

2008-09-28T09:47:00.002-04:00

From the Times of London (so take it for what it's worth):

Inside John McCain’s campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. “It would be fantastic,” said a McCain insider. “You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week.”

Our economy is melting, we may have a hot war with Pakistan, and this is what these deeply serious people are thinking of. Political campaigning as reality show.

I truly think that Sara Palin was told, and believed, that her adorableness would take America by storm; that she'd be invited on Letterman and Regis and Kelly to share recipes and a few laughs, and then she'd get to visit foreign leaders and talk about their new babies. And that would be it. She literally had no realistic idea about being eaten alive.

This is cynicism, and sexism, cannibalizing its own. It is John McCain's decision, his responsibility, and he should be called on it. No one feels good about watching this woman squirm and crash and burn. Now, for the rest of her life, and her family's life, they'll be punchlines in a never-forgotten joke.

Read Coates on it:

In election season, there is a price for being turned into a symbol. When actual journalists, with a rep to protect, show up, they are going to do their job. Which brings me to the sexism of John McCain. He knew full well what Sarah Palin was going to face if he nominated her. He knew that reporters would go through her past, that they'd quizz her on the present, that she would need to be ready, and he shunted concern aside, and tossed her to the wolves. Think on that for a mement. For one last run at the White House, he risked a future star of the party he claims to call home. How do you do that? I don't meant to rob Palin of agency, certainly she is also a victim of her own calculations and ambitions. But where I am from the elders protect you, and pull you back when you've gone too far, when your head has gotten too big.

Pretty Much With Atrios, Here.

2008-09-28T09:12:00.002-04:00

Atrios:

I'm sure if I dug deeply I could find some House Democrats who had some ideas which were a bit wacky, and who weren't particularly bright, but these people are generally kept hidden and not discussed in polite company. On the other hand, crazy idiots have pretty much been the voice of the Republican party for years.

These guys have devolved into absolute jokes. Boehner had to oppose a bailout because he has a tough fight next year to retain party leadership. Some are just so wacky about free market fundamentalism that they actually want the country to fail. From Politico:

"According to one GOP lawmaker, some House Republicans are saying privately that they'd rather "let the markets crash" than sign on to a massive bailout.
"For the sake of the altar of the free market system, do you accept a Great Depression?" the member asked."

Their hastily scribbled plans made no sense at all: Doing away with capital gains tax for the corps? They wouldn't have paid capital gains on their losses anyway.

And then there's this one, from the Weisman Washington Post article:

The core of Paulson's plan -- using $700 billion in taxpayer money to buy distressed assets from failing financial firms -- had to be changed, [Boehner] told McCain. Instead, banks should have to pony up money for a new federally administered insurance program, like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks suffering from mortgage defaults would then be able to draw funds from the insurance pool to remain solvent.

It was not a new idea, White House and Treasury officials said. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had considered a similar option and rejected it. For one thing, asking banks teetering on the edge of bankruptcy to pay into the insurance fund would be like asking a patient facing heart surgery to buy health insurance before being wheeled into the operating room. The banks would be too weak to pay, and the cost of the insurance would be so high, drawing on the fund after a round of mortgage foreclosures would merely be repaying the banks what they had paid in.

Besides, one Treasury official said, it would do nothing to address the problem at hand. Banks would have no more money than they do now to lend. And they would still be holding the bad assets that are making it impossible for them to borrow.

In these plans, there is a massive lack of understanding of the dynamics of the problem. The House Republicans seemed to think that their ideological mantra of cutting taxes and deregulation would solve a situation that would be served by neither.

That makes them ideological idiots.

From today's NYTimes story on the tentative solution:

Officials said they had also agreed to include a proposal by House Republicans that gives the Treasury secretary an additional option of issuing government insurance for troubled financial instruments as a way of reducing the amount of taxpayer money spent up front on the rescue effort.

The Treasury would be required to create the insurance program, officials said, but not necessarily to use it. Mr. Paulson had expressed little interest in that plan, and initial cost projections suggested it would be enormously expensive. But final details were not immediately available.

Watch them now come out and try to take credit for something they completely screwed up for four days. And hope their constituents are stupid enough and/or lazy enough to listen to them.

Tick Tock.

2008-09-28T09:02:00.002-04:00

Riveting article in the Washington Post describing the events surrounding that White House meeting last Thursday. McCain was pwnd. He was already mean and sarcastic at the White House, and apparently his mood didn't change before Friday night.

Pelosi said Obama would speak for the Democrats. Though later he would pepper Paulson with questions, according to a Republican in the room, his initial point was brief: "We've got to get something done."

Bush turned to McCain, who joked, "The longer I am around here, the more I respect seniority." McCain then turned to Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to speak first.

Boehner was blunt. The plan Paulson laid out would not win the support of the vast majority of House Republicans. It had been improved on the edges, with an oversight board and caps on the compensation of participating executives. But it had to be changed at the core. He did not mention the insurance alternative, but Democrats did. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, pressed Boehner hard, asking him if he really intended to scrap the deal and start again.

No, Boehner replied, he just wanted his members to have a voice. Obama then jumped in to turn the question on his rival: "What do you think of the [insurance] plan, John?" he asked repeatedly. McCain did not answer.

"No Solution Can Be More Elegant...Than The Problem Itself."

2008-09-28T08:33:00.002-04:00

Barney Frank:

“This was never going to be a bill that was going to make people happy,” he said. “No solution to a problem can be more elegant than the problem itself. We are dealing with a very difficult problem.”

No one in their right mind likes the notion of bailing out testosterone-fueled adolescents who have squandered the nation's capital for their own gain.

But the alternative is horrid. Paulson (yeah, with a grain of salt, but he's all we've got) predicts that if we don't bail these aholes out, up to five million Americans will lose their jobs over the next few months.

We'd all like to see them doing a long, long perp walk down the entire length of Wall Street.

But revenge is a dish best served cold. Right now, we'll have to swallow our disgust and deal with those guys by curbing future excess, and punishing them prudently now.

We must deal with an ugly solution to an ugly problem.

Gave Up.

2008-09-27T09:46:00.001-04:00

There was too much going on yesterday. I couldn't keep up. I failed in that way.

Politics Trumps Policy, Once Again.

2008-09-25T17:09:00.003-04:00

I'm now more and more of the mind that Republican senators and congressmen are using this agreement as a cynical political ploy in order to garner points for McCain. To hold this country hostage to their power play is really the most sickening kind of self-serving politics.
Shelby and Bunning are now speaking up and saying how flawed the plan was. Well, it was. Then there was a negotiation, and it became a little less flawed. Shelby and Bunning seem not to have been involved in that at all, because they're still talking about Paulson & Bernanke's "plan."

This is shaping up to be what a lot of people are already talking about: a hostage situation wherein no plan is passed, so that McCain can miss the debate, then vote against it on Monday, then campaign against it until the election. Fine, if it's his principle he's voting on. However, nothing he has said has offered any positive feedback for the actual situation--he's simply running on populist rhetoric, not actual solutions.

This disgusts me. The American people are the ones being held hostage here, for a bunch of unserious, very unresponsible politicians. Business as usual.

Republicans first, America second.

Gen Xrs Pwnd.

2008-09-25T13:49:00.003-04:00

Wow. Very interesting post on a blog I hadn't heard of before, talking about how Gen Xrs are going to find it very difficult to accumulate any great amount of wealth in their lifetimes, because of the housing bubble.

Generation X is just now coming into their prime earning years, and many of them bought move-up homes at inflated bubble prices. The Baby Boomers took their equity and bought multiple properties during the bubble. They all have one thing in common: they are all part of Generation Pwned. Pwned has many definitions, but it generally refers to a state of being defeated and helpless. People who paid bubble prices or HELOCed themselves into a massive debt are pwned by their houses and the housing market. I first wrote about this in America’s Debtor Prisons. Unfortunately, I know several families who this describes. All are overburdened with debt, and they were counting on increasing income and increasing home prices to finance their lifestyles and their family's future. It isn't going to turn out well for them.

Even if these people get a workout that allows them to stay in their homes, the terms of the workout are not going to leave them much to live on. Any workouts are going to have the highest possible DTI the government thinks you can handle (currently 38%,) and to qualify for the workout, the homeowner must give up half their future appreciation -- if there is any. Most would be better off walking away. Anyone paying 38% of their gross income (that is gross not net) to their housing costs, plus trying to finance car payments and credit card debt is going to find it very difficult. This is not going to be a short-term condition. Rapid house price appreciation leading to a HELOC dependant lifestyle is not going to happen any time soon -- if ever. Many of us have had to tighten our belts during the recession, but these people will not see any improvement in their finances when conditions improve. They are truly pwned.

Points For Consistency.

2008-09-25T11:49:00.001-04:00

From Steve Benen, quoting from WaPo:

McCain apparently wants to come riding onto Capitol Hill -- probably on a white horse, if he can find one -- where he can take credit for a package he had nothing to do with.
And if all of this sounds kind of familiar, it's because we saw a very similar situation about a year ago.

During a meeting [in May 2007] on immigration legislation, McCain and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) got into a shouting match when Cornyn started voicing concerns about the number of judicial appeals that illegal immigrants could receive, according to multiple sources -- both Democrats and Republicans -- who heard firsthand accounts of the exchange from lawmakers who were in the room.
At a bipartisan gathering in an ornate meeting room just off the Senate floor, McCain complained that Cornyn was raising petty objections to a compromise plan being worked out between Senate Republicans and Democrats and the White House. He used a curse word associated with chickens and accused Cornyn of raising the issue just to torpedo a deal.

Things got really heated when Cornyn accused McCain of being too busy campaigning for president to take part in the negotiations, which have gone on for months behind closed doors. "Wait a second here," Cornyn said to McCain. "I've been sitting in here for all of these negotiations and you just parachute in here on the last day. You're out of line."

McCain, a former Navy pilot, then used language more accustomed to sailors.... "[Expletive] you! I know more about this than anyone else in the room," shouted McCain at Cornyn.

So, lawmakers and administration officials negotiated behind closed doors for quite a while, trying to hammer out a deal. McCain, on the campaign trail, was detached and uninvolved. In the 11th hour, McCain swoops in, hoping to take credit for work he didn't do, and when challenged, Senator Hothead erupted, demanding deference.

Soon after, a deal was announced, McCain smiled for the cameras as if he'd been integral to the process, and then left to go back to the campaign trail, not sticking around long enough to help the compromise package become law.

Witchcraft.

2008-09-25T11:40:00.002-04:00

A real witchhunter, a Kenyan priest, lays hands on Sara Palin to protect her from...witchcraft. After the McCain campaign said she does not consider herself a Pentecostal.

Again, will someone ask her what she believes about separation of church and state? Because right now, a lot of sane people want that question answered.

Temperament.

2008-09-25T10:25:00.002-04:00

From Clive Crook, not exactly a bleeding-heart liberal (last week, he bashed the Dems in the Financial Times about their appearance of elitism). And this was Clive Crook before McCain's stunt yesterday:

I do think Obama is handling the crisis much better than McCain--not because he is suggesting better remedies (he continues to say little), but because his instinct to reflect before opening his mouth and his impeccable taste in advisers are both working to his advantage.

And:

This difference of intellectual temperament has often been seen as one of Obama's biggest drawbacks, including by many of his own supporters. Sometimes his altitude over the issues, and his reluctance to commit himself to simple straightforward positions, have indeed hurt him. But the complexities of the crisis are putting those traits in a much better light.

Another Cowboy.

2008-09-25T09:58:00.001-04:00

McCain suspending his campaign? Well, sadly, no. (Gathered from TPM and Aravosis, and cobbled together by me):

Obama called McCain's campaign yesterday morning ca. 8:45, asking for the crafting of a single bipartisan statement out of both campaigns. McCain agreed that would be a very good idea.

"During the time Barack Obama was waiting to hear back from Sen. McCain about their planned joint statement -- and while McCain says he was meeting with key advisors and becoming increasingly concerned about the financial crisis facing the country -- he was actually holding a special meeting with Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, the expat international financier." You know, the one who called blue-collar workers "rednecks" last week? He also had a photo op with Wall Street titans, including Henry Kravitz and others.

Then, even though McCain felt an extreme sense of urgency about the financial crisis and felt his campaign had to be suspended, he had time to have a long telephone chat with World Celebrity Bono about reducing poverty in Africa. Because you can't turn down Celebrity Bono.

This morning, 17 hours after he announced he had to run back to Washington to fix everything, he was addressing Bill Clinton's Global Initiative in New York.

Now, this guy has to rush (17 hours later) back to Washington to fix the economy? A topic he knows nothing about, by his own admission? And he's the one to fix it, after--and this is a fact--he's shown up less in the senate in the last two years than anyone except Tim Johnson, the guy who had the stroke?

He's rushing to fix the economy, after the 10:00 am meeting:
"Congressional Democrats and Republicans on key committees are nearing agreement on a Wall Street bailout package and will sit down Thursday morning to craft a final bipartisan plan, according to a Democratic source.

The aide said that “not too many” issues remain unresolved for the 10 a.m. meeting."

Let me ask you: what's he going to offer? Isn't this like Bush being completely absent for the first ten days of the crisis, only to appear for a photo op--which, by the way, the negotiations have to be interrupted for.

First, this is a really reckless political stunt. It's a way for him to duck out of the debate, and attempt to have the Palin/Biden debate cancelled.

And second, in my book, I'd rather have a President who can walk and chew
gum at the same time. Multiple crises face the President on any given day. To rush around like a chicken with its head cut off trying to inject himself in each and every one is reckless and crazy.

And the American people apparently agree:

SurveyUSA has just completed a snap poll on response to John McCain's request to cancel or postpone the presidential debate.

Several questions. But two key ones.

What to do about debates?

Hold as Scheduled 50%
Hold with Econ Focus 36%
Postpone 10%

Suspend Campaigns?

Suspend 14%
Continue 31%
Refocus on Fin. Crisis 48%

Would canceling the debates be good for America? 14% say yes.

Cat.

2008-09-24T18:05:00.001-04:00

I'm going to suspend my blog for the night because my cat has been outside for five days and I guess I'll go find her now.

Mighty Odd Behavior.

2008-09-24T17:57:00.001-04:00

Steve Benen thinks it's not unreasonable to ask if there's really something wrong with John McCain.

Apparently, as McCain sees it, 10 days after the Wall Street crisis began, now he wants to head back to Capitol Hill to do some work. Of course, lawmakers and administration officials have been working quite a bit, but McCain, who has played no direct role in the negotiations thus far, wants to swoop in and tell everyone what they need to do. This from a man who hasn't shown up for work at all in literally months.

What's more, after whining incessantly for months about the need for one-on-one debates, McCain has decided, just 48 hours before the first official debate, that everything should be postponed. And Barack Obama should go along with all of this, because McCain says so.

I've never even heard of a presidential candidate acting in such a reckless, compulsive, and ultimately haphazard fashion. McCain just decided to "suspend" campaign activities? This rivals picking Sarah Palin for the ticket on the list of desperation moves.

McCain spoke at some length yesterday about the nature of the economic crisis, and what he'd like to see happen. But at the time, it apparently never occurred to him to get actually get involved in the process. That is, until today.

The Republican nomination has apparently gone to some kind of man-child who believes stunts and gimmicks are the way to the White House. It is nothing short of breathtaking to see someone so manifestly unserious seek the highest office in the land.

Just One Person's Opinion.

2008-09-24T16:36:00.003-04:00

Frankly, as an American, and with the Presidential election around five weeks away, I'd really rather hear my candidates debate issues on a national stage than stepping into negotiations that are underway, and far along, in Washington. There is a real danger of those negotiations being sidetracked by presidential politics. This should be bipartisan, not deeply partisan.

Reminds me of Bush showing up five days after Katrina for a photo op in a stagelit square.

Leaving Kitchen Now. Too Hot.

2008-09-24T16:30:00.003-04:00

From the Obama campaign:

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama's call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

The details are that McCain announced suspension of his campaign.

The crisis has been with us since last Friday. McCain waited five days to suspend his campaign. Waiting until the polls showed he was tanking on the economic question.

Josh Marshall has it right:

Desperate and Reckless: Ramp up Georgia Crisis for votes; Call off half the GOP convention; pick a demonstrably unqualified freshman governor to salvage his campaign; calls for firing head of the SEC; now ask to have presidential debates delayed or canceled so he can politicize the bailout debate ...

Oh, Ricky.

2008-09-24T13:08:00.003-04:00

From Steve Benen:

...the [ new Washington Post/ABC News poll] asked respondents which candidate is "more honest and trustworthy." Obama enjoys a healthy, double-digit lead, 47% to 36%.

Just as importantly, this is a recent development. When voters were asked this same question about candidate honesty in mid-July, Obama and McCain were about tied (Obama had a three-point lead). The same poll asked the same question in August, and again, they were about tied (Obama led by just one point). Shortly after the Republican convention, McCain was perceived as more trustworthy by six points.
And now, that trend has completely reversed, and Obama leads by 11 points on honesty and trustworthiness.

How, oh how, could that be?

From this morning's NYT:

"One of the giant mortgage companies [Freddie Mac] at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.
The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.

From Hilzoy:

...if the NYT and Newsweek are right to say that Davis did almost no work for Freddie Mac, that (to my mind) makes the story worse, not better. What McCain spends his time railing against on the campaign trail is "the lobbyists, politicians, and bureaucrats who succeeded in persuading Congress and the administration to ignore the festering problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." Paying someone to do nothing, because of his "close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House", is about as clear an example of what McCain called "the Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling" as you could ask for.
McCain is absolutely right to condemn it. He was just wrong about who was "square in the middle of it." It wasn't Barack Obama. It was his own campaign manager.

Weird Gambling.

2008-09-24T10:56:00.002-04:00

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has come upon a totally weird situation at Intrade. He thinks the FBI should investigate. I have no opinion because I don't know anything at all about gambling. But it would be a good plot thread for all you mystery writers out there.

Republican Cynicism.

2008-09-24T10:21:00.002-04:00

This is how corrupt and cynical the Republican Party has become. Its one and only goal is to win elections and retain power. And it applies to the present Republican candidate.

A real comer-upper in the Republican ranks is Patrick Ruffini, by all accounts a very smart guy, a tech geek and strategerizer. But his new brain contains some very old, cynical, partisan ideas.

In the face of this financial crisis, which requires bipartisan leadership and support--united support--this is Ruffini's take:

"God Himself couldn't have given rank-and-file Republicans a better opportunity to create political space between themselves and the Administration. That's why I want to see 40 Republican 'No' votes in the Senate, and 150+ in the House. If a bailout is to pass, let it be with Democratic votes. Let this be the political establishment (Bush Republicans in the White House + Democrats in Congress) saddling the taxpayers with hundreds of billions in debt (more than the Iraq War, conjured up in a single weekend, and enabled by Pelosi, btw), while principled Republicans say 'No' and go to the country with a stinging indictment of the majority in Congress."

And John McCain is listening to Ruffini. As noted below, when asked if he'd vote for the bailout, he wouldn't answer the question.

Great show of bipartisanship, Mr. Straight Talk! Mr. Put America First!

It's all just a game to them. A game dripping with cynicism.

The Fightin' Ninth!

2008-09-24T09:07:00.001-04:00

Great speech by Marci Kaptur, D-9th, Ohio. She's been a favorite of progressives for quite a while.
This is how we want our Congress to look:

New Thought: Is This A Crisis, Or A Money Grab?

2008-09-23T16:34:00.005-04:00

Serious people now seem to be asking this question.

I just watched John McCain use the word "crisis" four times in three minutes, and then answer a reporter's question about how he would vote on the bailout (the present stated cynicism from the Republican think tanks being that they'll let the Democrats pass the bailout, then use it against them in political races).

McCain said how he would vote on it is irrelevant.

Oh.

From Romenesko, a letter from David Cay Johnson:

The Administration has scared the markets and some key legislative leaders, but it has not laid out a coherent, specific and compelling need for this enormous proposal, which is the equivalent of a one-time 55 percent income tax surcharge. (Instead the money will be borrowed, so ask from whom and how this much can be raised so quickly if the credit markets are nearly seized up with fear.)

Ask this question -- are the credit markets really about to seize up?

If they are then lots of business owners should be eager to tell how their bank is calling their 90-day revolving loans, rejecting new loans and demanding more cash on deposit. I called businessmen I know yesterday and not one of them reported such problems. Indeed, Citibank offered yesterday to lend me tens of thousands of dollars on my signature at 2.99 percent, well below the nearly 5 percent inflation rate. That offer came after I said no last week to a 4.99 percent loan.

If the problem is toxic mortgages then how come they are still being offered all over the Internet? On the main page AOL generates for me there is an ad for a 1.9% loan (which means you pay that interest rate and the rest of the interest is added to your balance due.) Why oh why or why would taxpayers be bailing out banks that are continuing to sell these toxic loans?

And from Yglesias:

Note that even if the strong version of the maybe there is no crisis theory is wrong, it’s doubly unclear why Hank Paulson needs $700 billion this week since he’s clearly not going to spend nearly that much by Halloween.

If congress feels like taking Paulson at his word, they can appropriate some fraction of $700 billion deemed adequate to tide Paulson over until November, add on a second stimulus and some measures to start reorganizing mortgages, and then let everybody keep studying the issue. Then if Paulson wants more money after the election, he can send a request that’s coordinated with the president-elect’s transition team to the lame-duck congress. Why should a rushed process commit us to spending months from now?

UPDATE: Please. I don't think there's not a crisis. I am, however, interested in finding out more about how this crisis is going to be manipulated, both by Wall Street (who wants to keep the party goin'), and by Republicans, who seem to be mounting this populist theme at this point (Richard Shelby was just on) about the poor, poor homeowner and MainStreeter who won't be helped by this bailout. I can see them twisting that particular shiv in the Dems come election time, should there be no provision for Main Street.

Your Urgent Response Is Needed!

2008-09-23T15:48:00.003-04:00

Best of the day, from Angry Bear:

Your Urgent Help Needed

Dear American:

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance.

My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

Used Bank Salesman.

2008-09-23T14:47:00.002-04:00

From Think Progress. It's already caught out Paulson in a lie.

Paulson this morning, at the hearing:

We gave you a simple, three-page legislative outline and I thought it would have been presumptuous for us on that outline to come up with an oversight mechanism. That’s the role of Congress, that’s something we’re going to work on together. So if any of you felt that I didn’t believe that we needed oversight: I believe we need oversight. We need oversight.

Paulson's legislative outline given to Congress last week. Section Eight:

Section 8. Review: Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Shorter this morning's hearings: We want the taxpayers to bail out our friends, by buying unknown quantities of worthless paper at really high prices.

David Frum Gets Religion.

2008-09-23T14:37:00.002-04:00

Gotta say, this guy--the archest of arch-conservatives, the author of the phrase "Axis of Evil--has really been quite rational since the Sara Palin pick. Here's his take on the Dodd Plan, noted below.

Dodd provides (a) for some restrictions on the pay of executives who take "inappropriate or excessive risks." He would also (b) force executives to return bonuses if they were based on accounting that later proved inaccurate - can we call this the Franklin Raines rule? (b) seems a good idea; (a) sounds like crowd-pleasing hokum ... still, it's a big improvement over this:
`The senior executives of any firm that is bailed out by Treasury should not be making more than the highest paid government official,''
ie, the president, who earns $400,000 a year. The author of that piece of cheap demagoguery? None other than John McCain, speaking today in Scranton, Pa. McCain on this issue continues to steer a wobbly middle course between sense and nonsense.

Some Good Questions.

2008-09-23T10:25:00.002-04:00

From Barry Ritholtz's econoblog The Big Picture, questions he would like to have asked at today's Bernanke/Paulson congressional hearing (14 Q's in the original, I've excerpted):

Here are some questions I would like to hear asked:

1. You two gentlemen have been wrong about the Housing crisis, missed the leverage problem, and understated the derivative issue. Recall the overuse of the word "Contained." Indeed, you two have been wrong about nearly everything financially related since this crisis began years ago.

Question: Why should we trust your judgment on the largest bailout in American history?

2. How are you pricing the purchase of these damaged assets? Is the taxpayer paying 22 cents on the dollar? 5.5 cents? If there is no market price for this junk paper, how are you going to determine a purchase price?

5. You have said that "The Housing correction is the root cause of market stability." What about leverage -- how significant was that as a root cause?

6. Your initial estimates for the cost of this were $700 billion dollars. Yet you also asked for a blank check, an unlimited ability to spend more "as needed." What is your worst case scenario for the total costs of this bailout?

7. The original version of this bailout package requested no judicial, administrative, or budgetary review of the spending of this bailout, What was the thought process behind that extraordinary, extra-constitutional request?

8. In 2004, your former firm, Goldman Sachs, along with 4 other brokers, received a waiver of the net capitalization rules, allowing these firms to dramatically exceed the 12-to-1 leverage rules. How much was this waiver responsible for the current situation?

9. Its just cost the taxpayer $50 billion to bail out money market funds, which are clearly non-insured, risk instruments. Why did we do that?

12. The current proposal has the US bailing out foreign banks. Has the USA become the insurer of the worlds financial assets?

13. What other financial firms and funds are likely to need a bailout in the near future? Are there other banks, brokers, insures that are at risk?

14. If we make this inordinate grant of unlimited cash, how can we rein in the budget in the future? How can we as a Congress say no to expensive budget items such as Nationalized Health Care, or Infrastructure repair programs or fill in the blank on the grounds they are "too expensive?"

Bonus comedy question: Are you now, or have you ever been, a Socialist? Do you know, or associate, with other Socialists?

"Minorities And Risky Folks."

2008-09-23T09:23:00.002-04:00

Neil Cavuto voiced the new meme traveling around conservative blogs and media: The reason for the current financial crisis is to be laid squarely (of course) at the feet of liberals, because of all those mortgages they gave to "minorities and risky folks."

Well, then comes the news that McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, received over $2 million from Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to lobby for assurances that those "risky folks" actually got mortgages.

And that big bad CRA actually had nothing to do with this current crisis. From Yglesias:

This Robert Gordon article from April pretty much demolishes the notion that the Community Reinvestment Act is responsible for the current crisis. Key points:

First, as I said earlier, the timing is all wrong.
Second, only a quarter of subprime loans came from institutions to which CRA was fully applicable; half came from institutions that are exempt from CRA requirements.
Last, non-CRA institutions were making these loans at twice the rate of institutions covered by the CRA.

Long story short, there’s no relationship here.

Make sure you read the linked Robert Gordon article.

Will they ever take blame for anything?

Spite Voting.

2008-09-23T08:31:00.002-04:00

Daniel Larison has a mini-essay in American Conservative blog about visceral conservatives voting simply to spite liberals. And how they cut off their own noses to spite their own faces. And the regret it leaves the smart ones with. He quotes someone:

Frustrated by the campus climate and skeptical of anti-Bush claims that struck me as outlandish, I did a foolish thing: I let my preference for who would win the presidency be influenced—though not wholly determined—by the emotional satisfaction I’d get from seeing people who annoyed me lose the election.

It's why they are so outrageous in this campaign--the choice of Sara Palin, the whole flap about "community organizers." All of this is supposed to piss off liberals, and awake in stupider conservatives the glee that comes along with that.

But they are playing with all of our futures, not just liberal futures. That's what Larison speaks to here.

Morning Thought.

2008-09-23T08:29:00.001-04:00

McCain doesn't only look like Herbert Hoover; he looks exactly like the guy in the Monopoly game.

Swells.

2008-09-22T17:44:00.000-04:00

Fred. Judy.

Nite.

Final Nightly Bailout Wrapup.

2008-09-22T17:32:00.001-04:00

From the WSJ.

Shark Jump.

2008-09-22T17:25:00.002-04:00

Politico reports the McCain campaign convened a rather nasty conference call with members of the press, accusing them of lying about McCain's campaign lies, and lied all the way through the conference call.

Oops. Spoke Too Soon.

2008-09-22T16:34:00.001-04:00

CNBC reporting Treasury told them there was no deal on the equity stakes.

Now, That Wasn't So Hard, Was It?

2008-09-22T16:04:00.001-04:00

From WSJ, via CalculatedRisk:

The Bush administration has conceded several changes to its rescue plan for the troubled banking industry, including agreeing to compensation limits for bank chief executives taking part in the plan and the need for more help for homeowners facing foreclosure, a leading House Democrat said Monday.

Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Rep. Barney Frank said the Treasury also agreed to Democrats' idea that the federal government should receive warrants to take an equity stake in financial firms in exchange for the government purchasing toxic assets from them.

Funny what another 373-point drop can do to your bargaining chip.

Dodd Plan Does Not Suck.

2008-09-22T14:56:00.003-04:00

That's the consensus of the economists I read. From Politico:

Among the major provisions Dodd is adding:
* Authority for bankruptcy judges to restructure mortgages for homeowners facing foreclosure. This was considered a poison pill in a housing bill that passed Congress earlier this summer, but it has gained much more currency now that Washington wants to bail out Wall Street.

* A provision that would require the Treasury to take a 65 percent portion of 20 percent any profits it makes from the newly purchased assets and put it into the federal government's HOPE program, an affordable housing program.

* An oversight board that not only includes the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the SEC, but congressionally appointed, non-governmental officials.

* Limits on executive compensation. This is a major stumbling point for Paulson in his negotiations with Congress, but cracking down on Wall Street executive salaries will be a major selling point for lawmakers. Dodd and Frank have put in place what's known as a "claw back" provision aimed at revoking compensation that executives received based on fraudulent claims.

* An independent inspector general to investigate the Treasury asset program, appointed by the president.

I'd have to hear more about the HOPE provision, as I would think that's a non-starter for Republicans (who want to blame the whole thing on ACORN, see below from Yglesias:

For one thing, the timeline is ludicrous. The Community Reinvestment Act was passed in 1977. Are we supposed to believe that CRA was working smoothly throughout the Carter, Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton years and then only under Bush II did overzealous anti-”redlining” enforcement come into play, perhaps a result of Dubya’s legendarily close relationship with ACORN? Or maybe overzealous enforcement back in the late 1970s is somehow responsible for a real estate blowout that only materialized 30 years later? It doesn’t even come close to making sense.

Beyond that, the mere existence of “subprime” loans — i.e., mortgages given to less-creditworthy individuals at higher interest rates — isn’t the problem here. The problems have to do with what was done with the loans after they were packaged, sold and used to make leveraged plays.

Wow. A Poll With A Zero. A Zero.

2008-09-22T13:37:00.001-04:00

From ThinkProgress:

A new American Research Group poll shows that “[n]o Americans say that the national economy is getting better,” while 82 percent say it is getting much worse. Only 17 percent approve of President Bush’s handling of the economy, with 78 percent disapproving. Even among Republicans, more disapprove of his economic performance than approve:
Among Republicans, 46% approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 48% disapprove. Among Democrats, 97% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy and 2% approve. Among independents, 8% approve and 87% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy.

Bush’s overall approval rating fell to 19 percent, from 30 percent last month, with 76 percent disapproving.

Place Your Bets.

2008-09-22T12:40:00.001-04:00

I'm pretty much in with Kevin Drum, here in his three probabilities:

Option A: Republicans will filibuster, Democrats will wither, and basically nothing much will get passed at all. In other words, suckered again.

Options B: There will be some kind of panic and we'll end up with a gigantic snarl of regulation that sounds tough but doesn't really do anyone any good, sort of like Sarbanes-Oxley.

Option C: Everyone will take a deep breath, Democrats will stand up to the financial industry, and some reasonable set of new regulations will be hammered into place.
I'd put the odds at about 60% for Option A, 35% for Option B, and 5% for Option C. My only reservation is that maybe I'm being a little too optimistic about all this.

Why Didn't We Just Get Dubai To Invade Iraq?

2008-09-22T12:14:00.002-04:00

The NY Times is running a great series on microcultures in the Middle East. Last week, we posted about Saudi women and their Cult of Oprah. This week, the focus is on the neoculture of Dubai, how young Arab men come there and are alternately mesmerized and conflicted by the openness there.

Dubai is, in some ways, a vision of what the rest of the Arab world could become — if it offered comparable economic opportunity, insistence on following the law and tolerance for cultural diversity. In this environment, religion is not something young men turn to because it fills a void or because they are bowing to a collective demand. That, in turn, creates an atmosphere that is open not only to those inclined to a less observant way of life, but also to those who are more religious. In Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Algeria, a man with a long beard is often treated as an Islamist — and sometimes denied work. Not here in Dubai.

...In this way, Dubai offers another prescription for promoting moderation. It offers a chance to lead a modern life in an Arab Islamic country. Mr. Abu Zanad raised his beer high, almost in a toast, and said he liked being able to walk through a mall and still hear the call to prayer.
“We like that it’s free and it still has Arab heritage,” he said “It’s not religion, it’s the culture, the Middle Eastern culture.”

“The Arabs have a future here,” said his best friend, Bilal Hamdan. “Where are we going to go back to? Egypt? Jordan? This is the future.”

Guns V. Beer.

2008-09-22T11:50:00.002-04:00

No kidding; I'm listening to Bloomberg when a stock analyst comes on and is asked what would be good investments under either an Obama presidency or a McCain presidency.

His answer was: under Obama, foreign beer, and under McCain, ammunition.

No wonder we are where we are.

The Brown Board.

2008-09-22T10:04:00.002-04:00

We have a couple of local online forums here in Williamsport, that sprang out of the original site under the Letters to the Editor of our paper, the Sun-Gazette. That forum was closed by Dave Troisi a few months ago.

The two forums are casually known as the blue board and the brown board.

The blue board has been going through a lot of upheaval, and has lost many of its members because of moderator bickering, infighting, emphasis on civility and censorship of political ideas.

The brown board seems to be thriving. The moderators are hands-off, and under their not-too-watchful eye, real discourse has sprung up.

Over at the brown board, MJ100 (a sometime poster here) is on fire. During this financial crisis, he is accurately (imo) separating out Money (as a player) from Politics (as a player).

I'm not as evolved in the patience area as he is, so he's a much better at actually breaking stuff down in a civil way, and talking across the red/blue divide.

I'd urge you to visit the brown board to see what I'm talking about. It's politics on a local level, in small-town America.

Nationalizing Fever: Catch It!

2008-09-22T09:25:00.002-04:00

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration widened the scope of its $700 billion plan to avert a financial meltdown by including assets other than mortgage-related securities.

The U.S. Treasury submitted revised guidance to Congress on its plan a day after first submitting it, as lawmakers and lobbyists push their own ideas. Officials now propose buying what they term troubled assets, without specifying the type, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News and confirmed by a congressional aide.

The change suggests the inclusion of instruments such as car and student loans, credit-card debt and any other troubled asset. That may force an eventual increase in the size of the package as Democrats and Republicans in Congress negotiate the final legislation with the Bush administration, analysts said. [Emphasis mine.]

Oh, and foreign banks. And your cat.

Corruption Forecast.

2008-09-22T09:10:00.003-04:00

Yesterday, the proposal Bush-Paulson sent to Congress was amended to include foreign banks in the bailout.

The two foreign banks most heavily encumbered with bad US debt are Barclay's and UBS.

Phil Gramm, the presumptive McCain Secretary of the Treasury, was until March a lobbyist for UBS.

Gah.

Loosen Up Your Phone Finger.

2008-09-22T08:30:00.005-04:00

Okay. Today's the day you have to call your Senators and your Congressman, and tell them, in effect: No. Blank. Check.

If you want to get more technical, you can ask them to vote for the Matt Yglesias Four-Bullet Progressives List:

* Preserve substantial financial upside for taxpayers in the event that the bailout works (I think in practice this requires an equity stake in the bailed out firms, but I’m not sure).

* Meaningful steps to restructure mortgages and keep most people in their houses.

* A real second stimulus package.

* Controls on executive pay for bailed out firms.

This is only the beginning. The Republicans are going to want nothing--nothing--punitive, nothing helpful to the middle class, and they'll want zero oversight. They are going to invoke the words "immediate," "swiftly," "NOW," and try to get a panic vote from Congress that gives them everything they want.

Remember how well panic votes worked in the past under Bush? Again, Yglesias:

It seems strange to me that [Bush and Paulson] didn’t bolster their rhetoric by providing congressional leaders with a list of all the times congress and the American people decided to swallow their skepticism and give the Bush administration the benefit of the doubt, and then everything worked out fine. It’s a really long list, so spelling it out in detail would surely convince a lot of people. Like remember when some folks said Bush’s math was wrong and his tax cuts would lead to large deficits? Idiots! Or those who warned that occupying Iraq might be kind of hard? Morons! If you can’t trust George W. Bush with an unlimited grant of authority then who can you trust?

Here are the Pennsylvania guys. You can find out where to call at these sites:

http://www.house.gov/house/MemberWWW.shtml
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

For locals, here are your numbers:

Carney (PA-10): 202-225-3731
Casey: 202-224-6324
Specter (who is being good on this): 202-224-4254

Be nice, be short, but call.

Forgotten Man.

2008-09-21T17:39:00.002-04:00

Best Busby Berkeley ever, with Joan Blondell. Futuristic, actually. See if you can spot John McCain. He's the one in the top hat and monocle, laughing at it.

Lol Street.

2008-09-21T10:46:00.003-04:00

All Hat, No Floor.

2008-09-21T10:07:00.000-04:00

I haven't read through everything this morning, but there seems to be a consensus among all the guys I've followed, and who have been right, about the last six or seven years, that this bailout is a bad deal. One guy likens it to Iraq: first Shock and Awe, followed by an occupation of Wall Street, and with no exit plan.

The bailout as structured seems to be shaping up as all bailout, no consequences for Wall Street. No new regulations, nothing to stop them doing the same thing in the future. Indeed, from the WSJ:

"House Republican staffers met with roughly 15 lobbyists Friday afternoon, whose message to lawmakers was clear: Don't load the legislation up with provisions not directly related to the crisis, or regulatory measures the industry has long opposed.

"We're opposed to adding provisions that will affect [or] undermine the deal substantively," said Scott Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable, whose members include the nation's largest banks, securities firms and insurers.

A deal killer for the group: a proposal that would grant bankruptcy judges new powers to lower the principal, interest rate or both on a mortgage as part of a bankruptcy proceeding."

EconoTwins.

2008-09-21T09:54:00.004-04:00

While we weren't looking last week, the Russian stock market tanked. A WaPo article lays it out. Good read.

One interesting excerpt from an interesting article:

"People are trying to make money on air instead of investing in real production and businesses," Ivan Smolin, 40, a businessman who participated in a protest in the city of Krasnoyarsk, said of the turmoil in the stock market. He also complained about the government's failure to invest in infrastructure. The length of Russia's paved roads, for example, increased 0.1 percent in the first six years of Putin's rule."

Osama bin Greenspan?

2008-09-20T13:00:00.001-04:00

The LA Times today:

The finance minister of Italy's conservative and pro-U.S. government warned of nothing less than a systemic breakdown. Giulio Tremonti excoriated the "voracious selfishness" of speculators and "stupid sluggishness" of regulators. And he singled out Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, with startling scorn.

"Greenspan was considered a master," Tremonti declared. "Now we must ask ourselves whether he is not, after [Osama] bin Laden, the man who hurt America the most. . . . It is clear that what is happening is a disease. It is not the failure of a bank, but the failure of a system. Until a few days ago, very few were willing to realize the intensity and the dramatic nature of the crisis."

And these are our friends!

Quote Of The Day.

2008-09-20T12:55:00.002-04:00

From Paul Krugman's blog (and about a million other places):

...a correspondent directs me to John McCain’s article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. You might want to be seated before reading this.

Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:
Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.
So McCain, who now poses as the scourge of Wall Street, was praising financial deregulation like 10 seconds ago — and promising that if we marketize health care, it will perform as well as the financial industry!

Anonymous Liberal has a further and better idea:

Then again, if we bring the same approach to health care that we brought to the banking industry, maybe in eight years or so, our health care system will completely collapse and the government will have to step in and take over. Voila! A national health care system. Brilliant.

Why There's No Talking To These People.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.021-04:00

From a posting at Balloon Juice:

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A similar "backfire effect" also influenced conservatives told about Bush administration assertions that tax cuts increase federal revenue. One group was offered a refutation by prominent economists that included current and former Bush administration officials. About 35 percent of conservatives told about the Bush claim believed it; 67 percent of those provided with both assertion and refutation believed that tax cuts increase revenue.

In a paper approaching publication, Nyhan, a PhD student at Duke University, and Reifler, at Georgia State University, suggest that Republicans might be especially prone to the backfire effect because conservatives may have more rigid views than liberals: Upon hearing a refutation, conservatives might "argue back" against the refutation in their minds, thereby strengthening their belief in the misinformation. Nyhan and Reifler did not see the same "backfire effect" when liberals were given misinformation and a refutation about the Bush administration's stance on stem cell research.

In other words, when you refute a right-wing lie, the right-wingers believe it even more strongly.

The Rise And Fall Of Sara Palin.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.019-04:00

Her popularity has dropped an astounding 12 points (some places say 21 points) over the past week.

Hard-Wired.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.016-04:00

I've believed for a few years now that our political views have at least something to do with how our brain is wired. So thankful that others are on the same trail. Latest from the Washington Post:

People who startle easily in response to threatening images or loud sounds seem to have a biological predisposition to adopt conservative political positions on many hot-button issues, according to unusual new research published yesterday.

The finding suggests that people who are particularly sensitive to signals of visual or auditory threats also tend to adopt a more defensive stance on political issues, such as immigration, gun control, defense spending and patriotism. People who are less sensitive to potential threats, by contrast, seem predisposed to hold more liberal positions on those issues.

Wall Street, Meet Main Street. Trickling Down.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.013-04:00

NYTimes says it's already hit Main Street, in the form of used trucks and Harleys.

They Love Us For Our Oprah.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.011-04:00

Bittersweet journalism this morning from the NYTimes, about Saudi women's dependence on Oprah for moral support. Worth the full read:

In a country where women are forbidden to vote, or to travel without the permission of a male guardian, a sense of powerlessness can lead women to look for unlikely sources of rescue, Ms. Muhammad explained. “If women here have problems with their fathers or their brothers, what can they do but look to Oprah?” she asked. “The idea that she will come and help them is a dream for them.”
...
“Oprah is the magic word for women here who want to scream out loud, who want to be heard,” Ms. Muhammad said. “Look at what happened to the girl from Qatif,” she said, referring to the infamous case of a young woman who was gang-raped, then sentenced to flogging because she had been in a car with an unrelated man.

The young woman from Qatif received a royal pardon last year after her case became an international media cause célèbre.

“The Qatif girl was heard outside the country, and she was helped,” Ms. Muhammad said. “But we need to have Saudi women who help women here. We need to have women social workers, women judges.”

“We have a very male-dominated society, and it’s very hard sometimes,” Ms. Muhammad said. “But for now I have my coffee, and sit, and I watch Oprah."

Cat Eating Spaghetti.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.009-04:00

Found it on Andrew Sullivan. Would have been funnier if the Soup guy hadn't stomped all over it at the end, but it's still the funny.

Sara Palin, Meet Eve Harrington.

2008-09-19T10:12:00.005-04:00

Rarely does a movie resonate so completely with real life.

William Wyler's All About Eve, one of the greatest of all time, tells the story of a meek-seeming fan of Margo Channing, Broadway's greatest actress, who worms her way into Channing's life and then simply destroys her.

Blind, hot ambition can rarely be kept under the covers for long. Of all the lies and gaffes Sara Palin has made in her short term in the spotlight, this is the most telling:

Eve Harrington said it best:

And, of course, it allows us to imagine John McCain as Bette Davis. Always a plus.

Whose Culture of Corruption?

2008-09-17T16:49:00.011-04:00

Through digby, I found a terrific article in CJR by Dean Starkman, outlining the incredible culture of corruption that spread through the mortgage industry in this century. It actually is a page turner, and should be read in its entirety.

Juicy bits. Which companies:

1. Handed out copies of the movie Boiler Room as a training tape
2. Partnered to sell its “PayOption Arms” with a brokerage owned by a five-time felon, whose convictions included gun-related charges
3. Forbade loan officers to check borrower income on certain loans
4. Ran an “art department” in its Tampa office, where documents were altered
5. Settled allegations of institutionalized marketing deception that covered two million customers
6. Developed “FastQual,” a program designed to approve borrowers in twelve seconds
7. Incentivized brokers and loan officers through “yield spread premiums” and other compensation schemes to put borrowers into more expensive loans
8. Tapped two kegs of beer at weekly staff meetings

Answers in the article.

There are many who wag their fingers at the borrower, and of course, there were many borrowers whose eyes were bigger than their pocketbooks. However, Starkman points out:

...it pays to remember that the borrower is the amateur in this equation, someone who might execute a mortgage twice in a lifetime. A lender will do it a hundred times before lunch.

He ends with a tease:

So, that’s what we know: the lending industry used marketing deception—including boiler-room tactics—on a mass scale against a class of financially vulnerable borrowers (which subprime borrowers are, by definition) and other middle-class financial amateurs already laboring with stagnating incomes and rising costs for health care, education, and, of course, housing.

Yet to be explored fully is the extent of Wall Street’s role, the size of the transfer of wealth between classes—from millions of civilians to thousands of professionals—that resulted, and the social and economic consequences of it all.

Good stuff.

Wall Street, Meet Main Street, Trickling Up.

2008-09-17T16:49:00.009-04:00

Very few voices in this entire financial debacle have been raised concerning the key, underlying, Main Street reason for the mess we're in: The fact that while family incomes have stagnated or receded, and while the job market is tanking, Americans have still been encouraged to consume mass quantities of goods.

They have responded to this urging, and to their unforeseen stagnating wages, by borrowing in vast amounts: credit cards, mortgages, easy loans. A lot of this was predicated on the idea that the American economy, and American industry, would go along as usual, that they would get their 1% or 2% raise every year, that their job would not suddenly be given to someone in India--in other words, that their lives would progress as promised, as their parents' and their grandparents' lives before theirs had progressed and bettered.

Bad policies, and concerted neglect over the last eight years, have dashed that American dream.

As John Leonhardt puts it in an excellent column:

The Bush administration, the Fed and Congress, meanwhile, continue to focus on the immediate crises, with little attention to the underlying reasons that the economy has gotten into this mess — a stagnation of incomes, an explosion of debt and a decidedly outdated, and limp, approach to government oversight. Remarkably, the presidential campaign has gotten less serious, while the economy’s problems have become more so.

Personal responsibility is a great and important quality. However, when most people aren't personally responsible, even those who have been suffer. When corporations are not accountable for their actions, or Wall Street is not accountable for its actions, everyone suffers. As some presidential candidate put it: we must all be personally responsible, but we rise and fall as one nation.

It is time now for a new direction, and a new mandate, for how the American people take on their personal responsibility. Leonhardt spoke to Gary Hart, and thought he had some pretty good ideas:

The tax code, [Hart] said, should be changed to reward savings far more than consumption. The resulting savings would help families prepare for retirement — and also become a pool of money that companies could invest in productive ways. The federal government should lend a hand, by investing in areas like basic science and technology, which could, in turn, help create more good-paying jobs than the economy has been able to create recently. The government also needs to bring down Medicare costs, which is the key to solving its long-term budget deficit.

We need new solutions, long-term, adult solutions, to bring us out of this hole.

Adults have to start running the show.

Comforting Poll.

2008-09-17T16:49:00.008-04:00

Although I'm following the polls, am not blogging about them because their significance will only start hardening in the middle of October. But there's a new NYTimes poll which seems to ask a lot of good questions, and we get hopeful answers.

I just don't think Obama can ever win when someone says, who has more experience to be Commander in Chief. But I can hope that while the pollee is answering, he's thinking, yeah, the guy has experience, but not the experience I'm looking for.

Voters will decide based on their fears. That, I'm convinced, has not changed in these fearful times. They will either vote for what they know, or for change. I think that's why everything's so even now in this country. McCain's morphing into Herbert Hoover hasn't helped, I don't think.

The Mark Of Zapatero.

2008-09-17T16:49:00.007-04:00

This story is winding its way around Blogistan, but is apparently on fire in the Spanish-language media.

From TPM:

...yesterday John McCain was interviewed on the Florida affiliate of Spanish radio network Union Radio. And in the interview McCain appeared not to know who the Prime Minister of Spain was and assumed he was some anti-American leftist leader from South America.
After the interviewer presses him a couple times on the point and tries to focus him on the fact that Prime Minister Zapatero isn't from Mexico and isn't a drug lord either McCain comes back at her saying, "All I can tell you is that I have a clear record of working with leaders in the Hemisphere that are friends with us and standing up to those who are not. And that's judged on the basis of the importance of our relationship with Latin America and the entire region."

Then there's a moment of awkward pause before she says. "But what about Europe? I'm talking about the President of Spain."

McCain: "What about me, what?

Interviewer: "Are you willing to meet with him if you're elected president?"

McCain: "I am wiling to meet with any leader who is dedicated to the same principles and philosophy that we are for humans rights, democracy and freedom. And I will stand up to those who do not."

There are a few interpretations of this gaffe, and none are not worrying.

The simple old-age thing would be that his mind simply doesn't move very quickly any more. He's answering questions about Central/South American leaders, and that's where he's stuck. He can't make a mental leap.

Another is that he has really bad preppers. When you're going in to an interview with Spanish-language media, you're supposed to have staff school you and query you on questions you will be likely asked. If his staff is really that lousy in prepping, what are they good for?

The last possibility is that he really didn't know the name of the Prime Minister of one of our staunchest allies. This is not the name of the King of Togo; this is a major member of NATO. It's like not recognizing Gordon Brown, or Sarkosy, or Angela Merkel.

To repeat, this is deeply disturbing coming from a guy who's running on his foreign policy and national security creds.

The Spanish media is having a heyday with it. Wonder what'll happen here.

New Ad.

2008-09-17T16:49:00.005-04:00

This is how real political campaigns ought to sound:

Troopergate. Where's The Media?

2008-09-17T16:49:00.004-04:00

Steve Benin:

We have an ethics scandal, involving a candidate for national office who appears to have lied, and who keeps changing her story. We have promises of cooperation, followed by complete and total obstinacy. We have powerful Republicans converging to shut down a legitimate investigation.

We have, in other words, a serious political scandal, which a presidential campaign is doing its best to obstruct. Where's the outrage?

Free Market. Or, At Least, Discounted Deeply.

2008-09-17T16:49:00.002-04:00

Duncan Black is the funniest economist around, and he's usually right about stuff. Below quote certainly matches my experience:

I don't think the sports/referee metaphor is perfect, but it's probably good enough. People who prattle on about "the free market" are usually too stupid to have a clue how complicated and pervasive the "rules" had to be to to get a well-functioning modern market system: sophisticated concepts of contracts and enforcement, property rights, legal entities, proper accounting, bankruptcy, limited liability, etc... etc..., did not descend from the heavens but were, in fact, created.

Separated At Birth.

2008-09-17T11:30:00.003-04:00

Eric Rauchway:

Hoover worked to get businessmen to respond to the crisis by herding them into conferences and urging them to cooperate. He backed immigration restriction and a cut in the capital-gains tax. He quarreled with the unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. None of it worked, and yet Hoover insisted on the soundness of fundamentals, blaming the continuing crisis on whiners: “The income of a large part of our people is not reduced by the depression,” he said, “but is affected by unnecessary fears and pessimism.” He urged his fellow countrymen to count on “the magnificent working of the Federal Reserve system and the inherently sound condition of the banks.”

But the banks were not inherently sound; they depended on the unsound foundation of 1920s lending. After the crash, the president said the fundamentals were strong, but American consumers said, in effect, well, we’ll see, and their credit-driven buying slowed. Purchases of consumer durables in 1930 were about 20 percent lower than they were in 1929. Less purchasing meant less selling and more layoffs, which meant still less purchasing and soon more defaulting. The banks began to fail. Meanwhile, the “magnificent working of the Federal Reserve” did not stop the bank failures, which increased to sickening levels as Hoover’s term ground on and the reality of the Depression became undeniable.

And In Other Russian News...

2008-09-17T11:20:00.001-04:00

Ruh Roh. While we were looking closer to home, the Russian stock market crashed.

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russian markets stopped trading for a second day after emergency funding measures by the government failed to halt the biggest stock rout since the country's debt default and currency devaluation a decade ago.

The ruble-denominated Micex Stock Exchange suspended trading indefinitely at 12:10 p.m. after its index erased a 7.6 percent gain and plunged as much as 10 percent within an hour. The benchmark fell 17 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started tracking the gauge in May 2001. The dollar- denominated RTS halted trading after similar declines.

Pravda Lives In Williamsport.

2008-09-17T10:03:00.001-04:00

Some wonder why the Pennsylvania T is so red. I think one of the major parts to this puzzle, as usual, is the quality of information you are able to access in this neck of the woods.

The Williamsport Sun-Gazette is the major paper for a large swathe of north central Pennsylvania. Dave Troisi is its editor, an extreme right-winger who butchers even AP and UPI stories to read in a light favorable to his politics.

The dead-tree forum for people in these parts is the Letters section. Readers really do read the letters to the editor, often to the exclusion of everything else in the paper.

Mr. Troisi swears up and down, sometimes, that he has no control over his letters, that he changes nothing in them. This is the case when a letter writer uses "Osama" instead of "Obama." He can't change that.

Other times, and apparently in the same breath, Mr. Troisi says that he has to edit letters for space reasons; although, it might be pointed out, that right-wingers get all the space they need.

He's done this before to me, but this is an unparalleled example of his editing skilz.

Here is my original letter (held, by the way, for a week and a half, then put in the Sunday letters section, which is more crowded than other days:

Mr. Underwood has always overreached on his "truths" about the left, and his recent letter is no exception.

First, nothing I have seen about Sara Palin equals the vicious right-wing emails spreading lies about Barack Obama, conflating him with Osama bin Laden and questioning his American citizenship and patriotism.

Palin's husband is on the record as recently belonging to a secessionist organization, AIP, whose founder said, ""The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government," it was the right wing who accused the Obamas of not being proud Americans, and it is the right wing who is silent on the above quote.

The Palins belong to a Pentecostal church where a few weeks ago, they heard a sermon by the founder of Jews For Jesus, an extremist religious group. During that sermon, with the Palin family in attendance, the man described terrorist attacks on Israelis as God's "judgment of unbelief" of Jews who haven't embraced Christianity. The extreme right-wing has been silent on this, too, although they scrambled to demonize Pastor Wright.

Second, I invite Mr. Underwood to take a closer look at Sara Palin's record, and the record of the State of Alaska, in terms of how serious she would be in pursuing smaller government.

Palin, who portrays herself as a fiscal conservative, racked up nearly $20 million in long-term debt as mayor of the tiny town of Wasilla — that amounts to $3,000 per resident.

Alaska, the fourth-smallest state in population, receives more earmarks than any other state. It's essentially a US welfare state. From investigative journalist Charles Homan:

"Simply put, Alaska has made a habit of transferring its operating costs to the federal government. The state pulls out nearly two times as much money as it pitches in to the Treasury, a drain that looks especially bad in light of the state's fiscal reality. Today, Alaska enjoys a healthy budget surplus, and it sits on a Permanent Fund of more than $39 billion. It also refuses to levy sales or income taxes on its citizens."

While Sara Palin would not bring fiscal responsibility to Washington, she would bring an even more extreme brand of theocracy than we have experienced over the last eight years.

Big government, and complete erasure of the distinction between church and state. That is what we can expect from a Palin presidency.

We have never seen a more unqualified, more reckless choice for Vice President than John McCain has made in choosing Sara Palin.

And as it appeared in the Sun-Gazette:

Mr. Underwood has always overreached on his "truths" about the left, and his recent letter is no exception. First, nothing I have seen about Sarah Palin equals the vicious right-wing e-mails spreading lies about Barack Obama, conflating him with Osama bin Laden and questioning his religion, his American citizenship and his patriotism.

The Palins belong to a Pentecostal church where, a few weeks ago, they heard a sermon by the founder of Jews For Jesus, an extremist religious group.

I invite Mr. Underwood to take a closer look at Palin's record, and the record of the State of Alaska, in terms of how serious she would be in pursuing smaller government. Alaska, the fourth-smallest state in population, receives more earmarks than any other state. It's essentially a welfare state.

While Palin would not bring fiscal responsibility to Washington, she would bring an even more extreme brand of theocracy than we have experienced over the past eight years. Big government, and complete erasure of the distinction between church and state. That is what we can expect from a Palin presidency.

We have never seen a more unqualified, more reckless choice for Vice President than John McCain has made in choosing Gov. Palin.

Just wow. Embarrassing. And dangerous.

Bucknell Prof Weighs In.

2008-09-17T09:44:00.001-04:00

Dean Baker, via TPM:

...We impose a modest transactions tax on all financial transactions, for example a tax of 0.02 percent on the purchase or sale of a future contract or a tax of 0.25 percent on the purchase or sale of a share of stock. (The United Kingdom has had a tax of 0.25 percent on stock sales and purchases for many decades.) Such a tax could easily raise a $150 billion a year, enough to pay for a national health care program or a major clean energy initiative.

A tax of this magnitude will have almost no impact on someone who intends to buy and hold a financial asset. No airline is going to be discouraged from hedging on jet fuel futures because of a 0.02 percent tax, nor will any farmer be dissuaded from hedging on her corn crop....

The only people who will really be hit by the tax are speculators; people who buy futures at 2:00, with the intentions of selling at 3:00. Even a modest tax can put a serious dent in the profits of those whose business is short-term speculation. We will therefore see less of this speculation, but it is hard to see why we should care.
....
We need a financial industry to facilitate the flow of capital from savers to people who want to buy a home or start a business. We don't need a financial sector that develops complex financial instruments as an end in itself. We will have the financial sector that we need with a modest financial transactions tax. We won't have the bloated parasitic sector that has produced the current crisis.

Bullshit, Bearshit.

2008-09-17T08:44:00.001-04:00

From our beloved digby:

So, McCain is babbling incoherently about the economy. I'm not surprised. He isn't interested in the economy. It's complicated. He doesn't like complicated.

This is how he plans to govern the most powerful nation in the world:

“One of the things I would do if I were President would be to sit the Shiites and the Sunnis down and say, ‘Stop the bullshit,’” said Mr. McCain.

Maybe McCain could go to Wall Street and sit the stock market down with the economy and tell them to "stop the bullshit."

Sometimes being a bully just isn't sufficient ...

First Dude.

2008-09-17T08:06:00.003-04:00

Remember back when we were leery of Hillary because it wouldn't just be Hillary but it would be Billary, a co-presidency, bringing twice the conflict, twice the drama, and we would never know who was making decisions?

Meet Todd Palin.

Bill Clinton was a successful president and is a brilliant guy.

Todd Palin was a member of a radical secessionist group whose founder said, "The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government."

Todd and Sara Palin's religion demands that a woman be subject to her husband's will.

Read the short, scary Salon article linked above.

This is no laughing matter. We know very little about this dude, and he could be co-President of the United States.

Bush/Cheney on steroids.

Mother Russia.

2008-09-17T07:18:00.002-04:00

Along with Matt Yglesias, one of the last things I expected from a Republican administration--but one of the last things I'll get--is the nationalization of industries. I guess Bush really did see a kindred soul when he stared into Putin's eyes.

Yglesias:

With the auto industry also clamoring for bailouts we’re perhaps moving in the direction of Lenin’s New Economic Policy in which a market economy exists on small scales while the state controls the “commanding heights” of heavy industry and finance.
...
Meanwhile, these are some pretty big companies the government now owns and, among other things, this raises the question of how these companies are going to be run. There could be an effort to manage them in the broad public interest or out-of-control crony capitalism or something like the situation in present-day Russia. It seems to me that there this step has uncertain implications far beyond the world of high finance.

Brownie on steroids.

The Blackberry. A Series of Tubes.

2008-09-16T16:03:00.002-04:00

From TPM:

Asked what work John McCain did as Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee that helped him understand the financial markets, the candidate's top economic adviser wielded visual evidence: his BlackBerry.
"He did this," Douglas Holtz-Eakin told reporters this morning, holding up his BlackBerry. "Telecommunications of the United States is a premier innovation in the past 15 years, comes right through the Commerce committee so you're looking at the miracle John McCain helped create and that's what he did."

Setting aside the puzzler of how a United States Senate Committee helped in the creation of a Canadian company, let's look at another piece of the record.

John McCain chaired the committe from 2003 to 2005. And, succeeding him as chair: Ted Stevens! He knew a lot about that technology garbage, too!

This morning, Carly Fiorina allowed as how Sara Palin wasn't qualified to run Hewlett Packard (nor, apparently was Carly Fiorina, but that's another story). Then, in order to remove her foot from her mouth, she went on to say this afternoon that not only was Sara Palin not qualified to run Hewlett Packard, but neither was John McCain. Or Barack Obama. Or Joe Biden.

HP may be looking to Ted Stevens to take over, after that pesky little legal mess is cleaned up.

Tubes!